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Risk-Opportunity Analysis, by Ralph Vince
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Every day, billions of human beings are making dozens of decisions that do not appear based on the same, seemingly sound mathematical principles they would apply to a gambling or investing situation. Yet these decisions are not irrational, rather they are the product of an innate sense pertaining to risk and opportunity. This Second Edition is presented for the non-mathematician (though the underlying math is provided for those who are interested), and not only gives reason to reconsider the bases we assess gambling and investing situations, but reveals this magnificent, innate ability we possess. For decades various mathematical notions have presented themselves which, though applicable to domains such as probability, game theory, operations research, and quantitative finance, have fallen essentially outside the purview of these various disciplines. Yet the concepts detailed in this text are all related, and taken together comprise their own niche-discipline, introduced here as Risk-Opportunity Analysis.
- Sales Rank: #547033 in Books
- Published on: 2012-02-03
- Original language: English
- Number of items: 1
- Dimensions: 9.00" h x .60" w x 6.00" l, .76 pounds
- Binding: Paperback
- 262 pages
About the Author
RALPH VINCE got his start in the trading business as a margin clerk, and later worked as a consultant programmer to large futures traders and fund managers. He presently chairs the Derivatives/Forex Committee on the board of The Market Technicians Association. Since the publication of Portfolio Management Formulas and The Mathematics of Money Management, both published by Wiley, numerous software companies have incorporated these ideas into their products.
Most helpful customer reviews
9 of 11 people found the following review helpful.
AN ESSENTIAL VOLUME !!!
By F J Rickey
This is a cursory introduction to the depth of Ralph Vince's thinking on the essential question of position-sizing in an investment portfolio. For more than 30 years, I have been impressed with how the matter of sizing one's positions is often whimsical and without rigor. For that matter, the questions of entry and exit are often subject to the same lack of rigor.
Mr. Vince covers the material rigorously, clearly and in a manner that is bound to create multiple "AH-HAH" moments. Building on a simple coin-toss game, Mr. Vince leads the reader to revelations about position-sizing, risk management, and the building blocks of a portfolio management theory that is robust in any and all market conditions.
When the author promises to have written a book that "wasn't mathematical", don't believe him!!! But despite the complexity of thought that spews from a brilliant mind, be not deterred. The essence of this book is within reach of everyone and working through it is well worth the effort. It should also be noted that working through "Risk Opportunity Analysis" will easily lead to the larger task of moving on to the same author's "The Leverage Space Trading Model".
Finding a path to safely guide one's portfolio, whether an individual investor or professional money manager, through a non-stop progression of random and cataclysmic events is essential. My advice is to give careful consideration to every word written by Ralph Vince.
-- Fred Rickey
4 of 4 people found the following review helpful.
Unsuited if you are not a mathematician
By Wilbert
The author says he wants to explain risk opportunity analyses for everyone. But I'm afraid he didn't succeed. Because I'm a forex trader and I have a doctorat. But I'm not a mathematician. And this book is way over my head.
The author is obviously an authority in his domain, and this is without a doubt an excellent book. But a mathematician or a statistician should review this book. In each case it's absolutely unsuited for beginners.
2 of 2 people found the following review helpful.
Presents some new ideas.
By Andrei Pozolotin
I found that this book indeed presents few new valuable ideas going beyond all the previous stuff Ralph Vince produced over past 20 years. But to really appreciate them you still have to read all the previous cruft :-) I also found that Shlok Datye 2012 thesis Money Management Principles (google it around) is a much more helpful 70 page introduction to Ralph Vince ideas which could spare you from Ralph Vince usual 400+ page torture :-)
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